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1st December 2014 4pm, University of Southampton, 02/1083
Anna Klabunde, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
A joint CLC/CPC seminar: The goal of our research is to build a model which allows analysing population dynamics with respect to the effects of the timing and location of possible future migration flows which might by influenced by policy changes and demographic transitions. To this end, we develop a prototype for a new generation of models which combine microsimulation of demographic processes with decision-making and interaction in an agent-based fashion. The proposed model is a combination of two different models: A demographic projection model describing life course dynamics, and an agent-based model for describing unobservable decision processes related to migration. The occurrence and timing of all life events other than migration are determined based on Markovian processes (i.e., by microsimulation), whereas migration events are the outcome of a decision process based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The parameters of the microsimulation model are estimated using multistate survival models on the MAFE (Migrations between Africa and Europe) data set, a micro survey of Senegalese individuals and heads of household in Senegal and Southern Europe. The unobservable parameters of the decision model are chosen using established calibration methods.
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