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Bayesian projection of international migration for all countries

13th June 2014 1pm, University of Southampton, 58/1023

Jonathan Azose, University of Washington

A joint CPC/S3RI seminar: In this talk I present a method for probabilistic projection of international migration. The goal of this work is to produce projections of net migration for all countries extending out to the year 2100, similar to the projections in the United Nation's World Population Prospects. Migration is notoriously hard to predict, so quantification of uncertainty is especially important. We accomplish this with a Bayesian hierarchical autoregressive model fit to time series data for all countries.