Research Programme

Forecasting Scottish migration after the 2014 referendum

Jakub BijakArek Wiƛniowski, Allan Findlay, David McCollum, Hanlin Shang

Project summary

Recent trends in migration between England and Scotland are being analysed to identify how migration - and in particular student migration - might change after independence, and expert-based projections will estimate how changes to migration might affect Scotland's population, labour market, and society.

Project activities

Date Activity Description
28 June - 2 July 2014 Invited presentation for the International Symposium on Forecasting, Rotterdam

'Forecasting Scottish migration in the context of the 2014 constitutional change debate'

27 February 2014  'Should Scotland have its own Immigration Policy?' Seminar of the David Hume Institute, Royal Society of Edinburgh

Presentation considering the challenges and opportunities that Scotland faces in devising an immigration policy attuned to its particular needs, whatever the outcome of the referendum. 

14 February 2014 

Where does migration sit within the debate over the future of the UK and Scotland? COMPAS Breakfast Briefing, London

Presentation exploring the contrasting positions on immigration in Britain and Scotland, undertaken as part of the ESRC 's 'Future of the UK and Scotland' programme.











Wisniowski, A., Bijak, J., Shang, H (2014),Forecasting migration in Scotland: Potential impact of independence on the future trends
CPC Briefing Paper 16,  ESRC Centre for Population Change, UK.

Shang, H., Bijak, J., Wisniowski, A (2014), Directions of impact of Scottish independence on migration: A survey of experts
CPC Briefing Paper 17, ESRC Centre for Population Change, UK. 

Wisniowski, A., Bijak, J., Shang, H (2014), Forecasting Scottish Migration in the Context of the 2014 Constitutional Change Debate
Population, Space and Place, 20, (5), 455-464


Media activities

"In Scotland, the polls got it wrong. Or did they?” on – 19 September 2014.

"Odds of a Scottish Yes vote are fading fast” on – 20 August 2014.

"Vote intentions unaffected by Games” on – 3 August 2014.

"Referendum result 'still too close to call' according to academic" on – 31 July 2014.

"Scottish independence vote is too close to call" on – 30 July 2014.

Scottish independence: 'Migration could rise' in the Scotsman - 14 February 2014

Immigration could rise on independence in the HeraldScotland - 14 Feb 2014

Scottish independence 'could lead to higher levels of migration' on the STV News website -  14 February 2014

"Yes vote 'may boost migration'" in The Courier - 14 February 2014


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